Sam Altman's September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO due to AI safety priorities, following the company's June confidential S-1 filing, represent the core driver behind current Polymarket odds favoring a $100B+ raise at 45.5% implied probability. Traders appear to price in OpenAI's pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation threshold before listing, alongside its $852 billion March private round and rapid revenue growth exceeding $40 billion annualized, which could support an outsized offering once conditions align in 2027. This positioning contrasts with nearer-term alternatives like $40B–$50B, reflecting uncertainty over timing, regulatory pathways, and capital needs amid competitive AI dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include safety protocol developments and any shift in FOMC or broader risk appetite affecting tech valuations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$100B+ 41%
<$30B 24.1%
$80B–$90B 21.3%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
BARU
BARU
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
24%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
45%
$100B+ 41%
<$30B 24.1%
$80B–$90B 21.3%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
BARU
BARU
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
$603 Vol.
24%
$30B–$40B
$463 Vol.
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 Vol.
24%
$50B–$60B
$1,153 Vol.
6%
$60B–$70B
$499 Vol.
8%
$70B–$80B
$489 Vol.
9%
$80B–$90B
$448 Vol.
21%
$90B–$100B
$306 Vol.
3%
$100B+
$1,742 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman's September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO due to AI safety priorities, following the company's June confidential S-1 filing, represent the core driver behind current Polymarket odds favoring a $100B+ raise at 45.5% implied probability. Traders appear to price in OpenAI's pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation threshold before listing, alongside its $852 billion March private round and rapid revenue growth exceeding $40 billion annualized, which could support an outsized offering once conditions align in 2027. This positioning contrasts with nearer-term alternatives like $40B–$50B, reflecting uncertainty over timing, regulatory pathways, and capital needs amid competitive AI dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include safety protocol developments and any shift in FOMC or broader risk appetite affecting tech valuations.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$7,324Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman's September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO due to AI safety priorities, following the company's June confidential S-1 filing, represent the core driver behind current Polymarket odds favoring a $100B+ raise at 45.5% implied probability. Traders appear to price in OpenAI's pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation threshold before listing, alongside its $852 billion March private round and rapid revenue growth exceeding $40 billion annualized, which could support an outsized offering once conditions align in 2027. This positioning contrasts with nearer-term alternatives like $40B–$50B, reflecting uncertainty over timing, regulatory pathways, and capital needs amid competitive AI dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include safety protocol developments and any shift in FOMC or broader risk appetite affecting tech valuations.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,324Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sam Altman's September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO due to AI safety priorities, following the company's June confidential S-1 filing, represent the core driver behind current Polymarket odds favoring a $100B+ raise at 45.5% implied probability. Traders appear to price in OpenAI's pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation threshold before listing, alongside its $852 billion March private round and rapid revenue growth exceeding $40 billion annualized, which could support an outsized offering once conditions align in 2027. This positioning contrasts with nearer-term alternatives like $40B–$50B, reflecting uncertainty over timing, regulatory pathways, and capital needs amid competitive AI dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include safety protocol developments and any shift in FOMC or broader risk appetite affecting tech valuations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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