No large near-Earth objects currently tracked by NASA and ESA systems show any meaningful chance of delivering a 10-kiloton or greater airburst or ground impact during the final months of 2026. Ongoing surveys, including early operations at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, continue to catalog small asteroids making safe close approaches without elevating any to Torino Scale 1 or higher. Historical impact rates and refined orbital models reinforce trader consensus that such an event remains statistically rare absent an undetected object, though a last-minute discovery of a previously unobserved 20–50 meter body could still shift the low-probability tail.
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