Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), alongside the absence of any qualifying bolide event through mid-May despite a noted uptick in smaller fireballs like the March Ohio airburst (250 tons TNT equivalent). Objects capable of 1 megaton TNT—roughly 25-meter diameter asteroids—remain rare historically, occurring roughly once per century, with comprehensive sky surveys detecting over 95% of threats above 30 meters. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, dark NEO discovered on a late trajectory, though continuous radar and optical monitoring by NOAA and ESA minimizes this risk; watch for quarterly CNEOS fireball reports and NEO discovery updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$106,001 Vol.
$106,001 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), alongside the absence of any qualifying bolide event through mid-May despite a noted uptick in smaller fireballs like the March Ohio airburst (250 tons TNT equivalent). Objects capable of 1 megaton TNT—roughly 25-meter diameter asteroids—remain rare historically, occurring roughly once per century, with comprehensive sky surveys detecting over 95% of threats above 30 meters. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, dark NEO discovered on a late trajectory, though continuous radar and optical monitoring by NOAA and ESA minimizes this risk; watch for quarterly CNEOS fireball reports and NEO discovery updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$106,001Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), alongside the absence of any qualifying bolide event through mid-May despite a noted uptick in smaller fireballs like the March Ohio airburst (250 tons TNT equivalent). Objects capable of 1 megaton TNT—roughly 25-meter diameter asteroids—remain rare historically, occurring roughly once per century, with comprehensive sky surveys detecting over 95% of threats above 30 meters. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, dark NEO discovered on a late trajectory, though continuous radar and optical monitoring by NOAA and ESA minimizes this risk; watch for quarterly CNEOS fireball reports and NEO discovery updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$106,001Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 96.5% for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year among tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs), alongside the absence of any qualifying bolide event through mid-May despite a noted uptick in smaller fireballs like the March Ohio airburst (250 tons TNT equivalent). Objects capable of 1 megaton TNT—roughly 25-meter diameter asteroids—remain rare historically, occurring roughly once per century, with comprehensive sky surveys detecting over 95% of threats above 30 meters. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, dark NEO discovered on a late trajectory, though continuous radar and optical monitoring by NOAA and ESA minimizes this risk; watch for quarterly CNEOS fireball reports and NEO discovery updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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