Global seismicity records from the USGS show that magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly one per week worldwide, establishing the primary driver for the current market-implied odds favoring exactly one event. No major clusters, aftershock sequences, or subduction-zone unrest have been detected in high-frequency regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire during the early portion of the May 11–17 window, keeping the chance of two or more events low. Seismicity remains at background levels with no notable model indications of elevated risk, consistent with historical patterns where isolated strike-slip or thrust events account for most single occurrences. New USGS updates through the resolution date could refine these probabilities if fresh data emerge.