The strong market consensus for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 rests on the complete absence of any such event in recorded history, with the largest observed quake measuring 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale according to USGS data. Earth's tectonic structure lacks the continuous fault length required to release the necessary seismic energy, as established by long-term seismological models and plate-boundary analysis. Global monitoring networks show that maximum magnitudes have remained below 9.6 even during peak activity periods. Although continuous USGS tracking could capture an unprecedented rupture, the brief remaining window through 2026 makes this outcome extremely unlikely without major, unforeseen shifts in fault dynamics.