**USGS analysis and global seismic records establish that magnitude 10.0+ earthquakes are physically impossible**, as no known fault system is long enough to generate the required rupture energy; the theoretical upper limit falls near 9.5–9.6. The instrumentally recorded maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with all subsequent great earthquakes (Alaska 1964, Sumatra 2004) staying below 9.3. Continuous worldwide monitoring by USGS, international networks, and real-time moment-magnitude calculations would immediately identify any candidate event, eliminating measurement uncertainty. With roughly 16 months until the end of 2026 and no tectonic conditions approaching the scale needed for an M10, trader consensus at 99.2% “No” reflects this established geophysical constraint rather than forecast variability. The only conceivable market-moving development would be a wholesale revision of magnitude scaling methodology or detection of an unprecedented planetary-scale fault, both of which lack supporting evidence.