Recent outbreaks across the Southeast and Midwest, including an EF3 in Mississippi and Oklahoma during the May 6–7 event, have elevated the early-month pace toward the historical average of 265–294 tornadoes. El Niño conditions are shifting the primary risk northward and eastward from traditional Tornado Alley by strengthening upper-level winds and altering Gulf moisture transport, which typically suppresses southern Plains supercell formation. With May only half complete and Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts already reflecting active patterns, trader consensus centers on the 200–289 range as models balance ongoing instability against potential late-month lulls. Updated National Weather Service outlooks and SPC convective forecasts in the coming days will refine landfall and intensity projections.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 50%
200–229 44%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
BARU
BARU
Jun 8, 2026
<200
34%
200–229
44%
230–259
39%
260–289
40%
290–319
15%
320–349
11%
350–379
10%
380–410
8%
410+
10%
<200 50%
200–229 44%
260–289 40%
230–259 39%
BARU
BARU
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$15 Vol.
34%
200–229
$0 Vol.
44%
230–259
$0 Vol.
39%
260–289
$0 Vol.
40%
290–319
$0 Vol.
15%
320–349
$0 Vol.
11%
350–379
$0 Vol.
10%
380–410
$0 Vol.
8%
410+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent outbreaks across the Southeast and Midwest, including an EF3 in Mississippi and Oklahoma during the May 6–7 event, have elevated the early-month pace toward the historical average of 265–294 tornadoes. El Niño conditions are shifting the primary risk northward and eastward from traditional Tornado Alley by strengthening upper-level winds and altering Gulf moisture transport, which typically suppresses southern Plains supercell formation. With May only half complete and Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts already reflecting active patterns, trader consensus centers on the 200–289 range as models balance ongoing instability against potential late-month lulls. Updated National Weather Service outlooks and SPC convective forecasts in the coming days will refine landfall and intensity projections.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$15Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent outbreaks across the Southeast and Midwest, including an EF3 in Mississippi and Oklahoma during the May 6–7 event, have elevated the early-month pace toward the historical average of 265–294 tornadoes. El Niño conditions are shifting the primary risk northward and eastward from traditional Tornado Alley by strengthening upper-level winds and altering Gulf moisture transport, which typically suppresses southern Plains supercell formation. With May only half complete and Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts already reflecting active patterns, trader consensus centers on the 200–289 range as models balance ongoing instability against potential late-month lulls. Updated National Weather Service outlooks and SPC convective forecasts in the coming days will refine landfall and intensity projections.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$15Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent outbreaks across the Southeast and Midwest, including an EF3 in Mississippi and Oklahoma during the May 6–7 event, have elevated the early-month pace toward the historical average of 265–294 tornadoes. El Niño conditions are shifting the primary risk northward and eastward from traditional Tornado Alley by strengthening upper-level winds and altering Gulf moisture transport, which typically suppresses southern Plains supercell formation. With May only half complete and Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts already reflecting active patterns, trader consensus centers on the 200–289 range as models balance ongoing instability against potential late-month lulls. Updated National Weather Service outlooks and SPC convective forecasts in the coming days will refine landfall and intensity projections.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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