Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra ejecta) in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) monitoring. This aligns with the historical average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events per year, stable over two centuries per GVP data, with no uptick in global activity. The latest USGS/GVP weekly report (April 30–May 6) notes intensified effusive activity at Mayon (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents) and Kīlauea (fountaining) alongside unrest at Lewotobi and Awu, but none exhibit precursors like deep seismicity or rapid deformation signaling subplinian explosivity. Ongoing seismic networks and satellite gas plume tracking will inform year-end probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBerapa banyak letusan gunung berapi besar (VEI ≥4) pada tahun 2026?
Berapa banyak letusan gunung berapi besar (VEI ≥4) pada tahun 2026?
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,076,951 Vol.
$1,076,951 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
57%
1
35%
2
4%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,076,951 Vol.
$1,076,951 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$476,549 Vol.
57%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$31,818 Vol.
4%
3
$25,989 Vol.
2%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$257,964 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra ejecta) in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) monitoring. This aligns with the historical average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events per year, stable over two centuries per GVP data, with no uptick in global activity. The latest USGS/GVP weekly report (April 30–May 6) notes intensified effusive activity at Mayon (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents) and Kīlauea (fountaining) alongside unrest at Lewotobi and Awu, but none exhibit precursors like deep seismicity or rapid deformation signaling subplinian explosivity. Ongoing seismic networks and satellite gas plume tracking will inform year-end probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,076,951Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra ejecta) in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) monitoring. This aligns with the historical average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events per year, stable over two centuries per GVP data, with no uptick in global activity. The latest USGS/GVP weekly report (April 30–May 6) notes intensified effusive activity at Mayon (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents) and Kīlauea (fountaining) alongside unrest at Lewotobi and Awu, but none exhibit precursors like deep seismicity or rapid deformation signaling subplinian explosivity. Ongoing seismic networks and satellite gas plume tracking will inform year-end probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,076,951Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra ejecta) in 2026, reflecting the absence of any such events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) monitoring. This aligns with the historical average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events per year, stable over two centuries per GVP data, with no uptick in global activity. The latest USGS/GVP weekly report (April 30–May 6) notes intensified effusive activity at Mayon (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents) and Kīlauea (fountaining) alongside unrest at Lewotobi and Awu, but none exhibit precursors like deep seismicity or rapid deformation signaling subplinian explosivity. Ongoing seismic networks and satellite gas plume tracking will inform year-end probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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