The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI 1+ eruption at Vesuvius this year rests on the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology’s April 2026 bulletin, which recorded only 68 low-magnitude seismic events, mostly below 1.0, together with stable ground deformation, steady fumarolic output, and unremarkable geochemical readings. This quiescence continues the low-energy regime observed since the VEI 3 eruption of 1944, with only minor, short-lived deep swarms noted early in 2026 that quickly subsided. Realistic scenarios that could shift the market include abrupt rises in long-period seismicity, measurable inflation signaling magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux. Traders will monitor the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any departure from baseline conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
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BARU
Dec 31, 2026
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BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI 1+ eruption at Vesuvius this year rests on the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology’s April 2026 bulletin, which recorded only 68 low-magnitude seismic events, mostly below 1.0, together with stable ground deformation, steady fumarolic output, and unremarkable geochemical readings. This quiescence continues the low-energy regime observed since the VEI 3 eruption of 1944, with only minor, short-lived deep swarms noted early in 2026 that quickly subsided. Realistic scenarios that could shift the market include abrupt rises in long-period seismicity, measurable inflation signaling magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux. Traders will monitor the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any departure from baseline conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$431Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI 1+ eruption at Vesuvius this year rests on the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology’s April 2026 bulletin, which recorded only 68 low-magnitude seismic events, mostly below 1.0, together with stable ground deformation, steady fumarolic output, and unremarkable geochemical readings. This quiescence continues the low-energy regime observed since the VEI 3 eruption of 1944, with only minor, short-lived deep swarms noted early in 2026 that quickly subsided. Realistic scenarios that could shift the market include abrupt rises in long-period seismicity, measurable inflation signaling magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux. Traders will monitor the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any departure from baseline conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$431Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus favoring no VEI 1+ eruption at Vesuvius this year rests on the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology’s April 2026 bulletin, which recorded only 68 low-magnitude seismic events, mostly below 1.0, together with stable ground deformation, steady fumarolic output, and unremarkable geochemical readings. This quiescence continues the low-energy regime observed since the VEI 3 eruption of 1944, with only minor, short-lived deep swarms noted early in 2026 that quickly subsided. Realistic scenarios that could shift the market include abrupt rises in long-period seismicity, measurable inflation signaling magma ascent, or spikes in sulfur dioxide flux. Traders will monitor the May INGV bulletin and real-time seismic feeds for any departure from baseline conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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