Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, including January flank lava flows in Valle del Bove, a March impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova with ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 quake, and renewed April summit activity with 28 MW thermal anomalies plus rare 80-km-deep mantle magma signatures, drives the 66% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) bulletins document persistent seismic swarms, elevated SO2 emissions, and ground deformation consistent with magma ascent, while Etna’s historical record of multiple moderate paroxysms per decade—such as the 2018 VEI 2 event—provides climatological context for traders. Weekly monitoring updates through summer will clarify whether current low-level effusive and explosive phases intensify to meet the VEI 2 threshold.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
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BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, including January flank lava flows in Valle del Bove, a March impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova with ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 quake, and renewed April summit activity with 28 MW thermal anomalies plus rare 80-km-deep mantle magma signatures, drives the 66% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) bulletins document persistent seismic swarms, elevated SO2 emissions, and ground deformation consistent with magma ascent, while Etna’s historical record of multiple moderate paroxysms per decade—such as the 2018 VEI 2 event—provides climatological context for traders. Weekly monitoring updates through summer will clarify whether current low-level effusive and explosive phases intensify to meet the VEI 2 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$16Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, including January flank lava flows in Valle del Bove, a March impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova with ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 quake, and renewed April summit activity with 28 MW thermal anomalies plus rare 80-km-deep mantle magma signatures, drives the 66% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) bulletins document persistent seismic swarms, elevated SO2 emissions, and ground deformation consistent with magma ascent, while Etna’s historical record of multiple moderate paroxysms per decade—such as the 2018 VEI 2 event—provides climatological context for traders. Weekly monitoring updates through summer will clarify whether current low-level effusive and explosive phases intensify to meet the VEI 2 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$16Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, including January flank lava flows in Valle del Bove, a March impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova with ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 quake, and renewed April summit activity with 28 MW thermal anomalies plus rare 80-km-deep mantle magma signatures, drives the 66% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) bulletins document persistent seismic swarms, elevated SO2 emissions, and ground deformation consistent with magma ascent, while Etna’s historical record of multiple moderate paroxysms per decade—such as the 2018 VEI 2 event—provides climatological context for traders. Weekly monitoring updates through summer will clarify whether current low-level effusive and explosive phases intensify to meet the VEI 2 threshold.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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