Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dry start to May 2026 at London Heathrow Airport, where official Met Office observations show only 2-5mm of precipitation through May 13—far below the climatological ~20mm for the first half—driving high implied probabilities for 10-20mm total bins amid persistent high-pressure systems suppressing rainfall across southern England following April's 38% of normal. Closely matched odds between 10-15mm (40.5%) and 15-20mm (42.5%) stem from forecast uncertainty, with Met Office models indicating potential heavy showers and thunderstorms in the remaining fortnight due to shifting Atlantic moisture, though ensemble spreads highlight variable shower coverage. Historical May average nears 50mm, but current deficit and dry spring analogs favor below-normal totals; watch daily advisories for intensification signals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPrecipitation in London in May?
Precipitation in London in May?
20-25mm 31%
5-10mm 14.6%
<5mm 0
10-15mm 0
BARU
BARU
May 31, 2026
<5mm
41%
5-10mm
15%
10-15mm
41%
15-20mm
43%
20-25mm
25%
25-30mm
44%
30mm+
34%
20-25mm 31%
5-10mm 14.6%
<5mm 0
10-15mm 0
BARU
BARU
May 31, 2026
<5mm
$242 Vol.
41%
5-10mm
$273 Vol.
15%
10-15mm
$95 Vol.
41%
15-20mm
$44 Vol.
43%
20-25mm
$1,045 Vol.
25%
25-30mm
$48 Vol.
44%
30mm+
$129 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dry start to May 2026 at London Heathrow Airport, where official Met Office observations show only 2-5mm of precipitation through May 13—far below the climatological ~20mm for the first half—driving high implied probabilities for 10-20mm total bins amid persistent high-pressure systems suppressing rainfall across southern England following April's 38% of normal. Closely matched odds between 10-15mm (40.5%) and 15-20mm (42.5%) stem from forecast uncertainty, with Met Office models indicating potential heavy showers and thunderstorms in the remaining fortnight due to shifting Atlantic moisture, though ensemble spreads highlight variable shower coverage. Historical May average nears 50mm, but current deficit and dry spring analogs favor below-normal totals; watch daily advisories for intensification signals.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,876Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dry start to May 2026 at London Heathrow Airport, where official Met Office observations show only 2-5mm of precipitation through May 13—far below the climatological ~20mm for the first half—driving high implied probabilities for 10-20mm total bins amid persistent high-pressure systems suppressing rainfall across southern England following April's 38% of normal. Closely matched odds between 10-15mm (40.5%) and 15-20mm (42.5%) stem from forecast uncertainty, with Met Office models indicating potential heavy showers and thunderstorms in the remaining fortnight due to shifting Atlantic moisture, though ensemble spreads highlight variable shower coverage. Historical May average nears 50mm, but current deficit and dry spring analogs favor below-normal totals; watch daily advisories for intensification signals.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in May, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,876Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dry start to May 2026 at London Heathrow Airport, where official Met Office observations show only 2-5mm of precipitation through May 13—far below the climatological ~20mm for the first half—driving high implied probabilities for 10-20mm total bins amid persistent high-pressure systems suppressing rainfall across southern England following April's 38% of normal. Closely matched odds between 10-15mm (40.5%) and 15-20mm (42.5%) stem from forecast uncertainty, with Met Office models indicating potential heavy showers and thunderstorms in the remaining fortnight due to shifting Atlantic moisture, though ensemble spreads highlight variable shower coverage. Historical May average nears 50mm, but current deficit and dry spring analogs favor below-normal totals; watch daily advisories for intensification signals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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