Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
20°C 27%
21°C 26%
19°C 23%
22°C 5%
BARU
BARU
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
3%
18°C
4%
19°C
23%
20°C
27%
21°C
26%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
3%
20°C 27%
21°C 26%
19°C 23%
22°C 5%
BARU
BARU
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$125 Vol.
1%
15°C
$65 Vol.
1%
16°C
$125 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$60 Vol.
27%
21°C
$8 Vol.
26%
22°C
$130 Vol.
5%
23°C
$581 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$104 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,199Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,199Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast models from ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) converging on a high near 20°C for Istanbul on May 17, with ensemble spreads of ±2°C explaining the tight clustering across 19–23°C outcomes at 16–21% implied probabilities. Mid-May climatology supports this, as Istanbul's average highs hover around 21°C amid Black Sea and Marmara influences moderating temperatures via sea breezes and northerly flows, while recent days (May 13–15) saw highs of 18–22°C under variable cloudiness. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging over the Balkans boosting 22–23°C chances versus lingering frontal moisture favoring 19°C; new 12z model runs expected May 16 could sharpen odds ahead of resolution based on official Istanbul station data.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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