Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models indicate above-average warmth across the Marmara region, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air from Anatolia and supporting the 63.5% implied probability for a 25°C or higher peak at the NOAA-monitored Istanbul Airport station. Mid-May climatology typically yields daily highs of 21–23°C under partial cloud cover and sea breezes, yet current high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea is promoting stronger insolation and reduced mixing, elevating projected maxima. Afternoon heating thresholds remain sensitive to any late-day marine layer development or wind shifts, with updated model runs and station observations through evening providing the decisive data for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 16?
25°C or higher 73%
24°C 21%
23°C 6%
22°C 1.4%
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
73%
25°C or higher 73%
24°C 21%
23°C 6%
22°C 1.4%
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
BARU
$12,019 Vol.
May 16, 2026
15°C or below
$1,053 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$674 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$430 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,346 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$986 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,494 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,252 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,423 Vol.
1%
23°C
$763 Vol.
6%
24°C
$626 Vol.
21%
25°C or higher
$984 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models indicate above-average warmth across the Marmara region, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air from Anatolia and supporting the 63.5% implied probability for a 25°C or higher peak at the NOAA-monitored Istanbul Airport station. Mid-May climatology typically yields daily highs of 21–23°C under partial cloud cover and sea breezes, yet current high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea is promoting stronger insolation and reduced mixing, elevating projected maxima. Afternoon heating thresholds remain sensitive to any late-day marine layer development or wind shifts, with updated model runs and station observations through evening providing the decisive data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$12,019Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models indicate above-average warmth across the Marmara region, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air from Anatolia and supporting the 63.5% implied probability for a 25°C or higher peak at the NOAA-monitored Istanbul Airport station. Mid-May climatology typically yields daily highs of 21–23°C under partial cloud cover and sea breezes, yet current high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea is promoting stronger insolation and reduced mixing, elevating projected maxima. Afternoon heating thresholds remain sensitive to any late-day marine layer development or wind shifts, with updated model runs and station observations through evening providing the decisive data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,019Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System models indicate above-average warmth across the Marmara region, driven by southerly flow advecting milder air from Anatolia and supporting the 63.5% implied probability for a 25°C or higher peak at the NOAA-monitored Istanbul Airport station. Mid-May climatology typically yields daily highs of 21–23°C under partial cloud cover and sea breezes, yet current high-pressure ridging over the Black Sea is promoting stronger insolation and reduced mixing, elevating projected maxima. Afternoon heating thresholds remain sensitive to any late-day marine layer development or wind shifts, with updated model runs and station observations through evening providing the decisive data for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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