Latest ensemble forecasts from numerical weather models have stabilized around a daytime maximum of 14°C in London today, underpinning the 48.5% implied probability on that outcome and 33% on 15°C. Overnight lows near 5°C under initially clear skies have given way to increasing cloud cover and scattered light showers, which suppress afternoon heating below the mid-May climatological average of 16–17°C. Model runs show tight clustering between 13–15°C, with brief sunny breaks the key variable that could nudge readings toward the upper end of that range. Traders are weighting official Met Office guidance and station data from London City Airport most heavily, as these resolve the contract.