Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 25°C slightly ahead at 33.5% implied probability for Shanghai Pudong Airport's highest temperature on May 15, closely trailed by 24°C (28.5%) and 26°C (21%), reflecting tight forecast model agreement amid inherent short-term uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles project highs of 25-27°C with low-precipitation (3-6%) conditions of morning cloudiness decreasing to partial afternoon sunshine, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. Yesterday's early showers and overcast skies on May 14 limited peaks to the low-mid 20s°C due to spring frontal passages and ESE sea breezes at 15-20 km/h moderating coastal heating. Key differentiators include cloud-clearing timing and diurnal solar insolation strength—lingering low clouds favor 24°C, quicker dissipation boosts 26°C—while airport site observations minimize urban heat island effects. Evening model updates may refine odds before resolution via finalized Wunderground data.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 34%
24°C 27%
26°C 24%
23°C 11%
BARU
$13,256 Vol.
BARU
$13,256 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
11%
24°C
27%
25°C
34%
26°C
24%
27°C
8%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 34%
24°C 27%
26°C 24%
23°C 11%
BARU
$13,256 Vol.
BARU
$13,256 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$1,354 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,100 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,218 Vol.
11%
24°C
$915 Vol.
27%
25°C
$1,110 Vol.
34%
26°C
$732 Vol.
24%
27°C
$1,372 Vol.
8%
28°C
$2,225 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,205 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$926 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 25°C slightly ahead at 33.5% implied probability for Shanghai Pudong Airport's highest temperature on May 15, closely trailed by 24°C (28.5%) and 26°C (21%), reflecting tight forecast model agreement amid inherent short-term uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles project highs of 25-27°C with low-precipitation (3-6%) conditions of morning cloudiness decreasing to partial afternoon sunshine, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. Yesterday's early showers and overcast skies on May 14 limited peaks to the low-mid 20s°C due to spring frontal passages and ESE sea breezes at 15-20 km/h moderating coastal heating. Key differentiators include cloud-clearing timing and diurnal solar insolation strength—lingering low clouds favor 24°C, quicker dissipation boosts 26°C—while airport site observations minimize urban heat island effects. Evening model updates may refine odds before resolution via finalized Wunderground data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$13,256Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 25°C slightly ahead at 33.5% implied probability for Shanghai Pudong Airport's highest temperature on May 15, closely trailed by 24°C (28.5%) and 26°C (21%), reflecting tight forecast model agreement amid inherent short-term uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles project highs of 25-27°C with low-precipitation (3-6%) conditions of morning cloudiness decreasing to partial afternoon sunshine, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. Yesterday's early showers and overcast skies on May 14 limited peaks to the low-mid 20s°C due to spring frontal passages and ESE sea breezes at 15-20 km/h moderating coastal heating. Key differentiators include cloud-clearing timing and diurnal solar insolation strength—lingering low clouds favor 24°C, quicker dissipation boosts 26°C—while airport site observations minimize urban heat island effects. Evening model updates may refine odds before resolution via finalized Wunderground data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,256Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 25°C slightly ahead at 33.5% implied probability for Shanghai Pudong Airport's highest temperature on May 15, closely trailed by 24°C (28.5%) and 26°C (21%), reflecting tight forecast model agreement amid inherent short-term uncertainty. GFS and ECMWF ensembles project highs of 25-27°C with low-precipitation (3-6%) conditions of morning cloudiness decreasing to partial afternoon sunshine, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. Yesterday's early showers and overcast skies on May 14 limited peaks to the low-mid 20s°C due to spring frontal passages and ESE sea breezes at 15-20 km/h moderating coastal heating. Key differentiators include cloud-clearing timing and diurnal solar insolation strength—lingering low clouds favor 24°C, quicker dissipation boosts 26°C—while airport site observations minimize urban heat island effects. Evening model updates may refine odds before resolution via finalized Wunderground data.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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