Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and real-time observations drive the 100% market-implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 15, with hourly projections peaking at 27-29°C around 3 PM KST under clear skies, light winds, and subsidence from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm advection. Current station data already shows temperatures climbing past 25°C mid-afternoon, aligning with GFS and ECMWF model consensus for above-normal heat—following yesterday's confirmed 26.3°C high—against mid-May climatological averages near 23°C. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud development or a northerly surge disrupting the ridge, though 0-10% precipitation odds and stable steering patterns minimize such risks; traders await KMA's end-of-day official maximum for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Seoul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 15?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$185,638 Vol.
$185,638 Vol.
May 15, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$185,638 Vol.
$185,638 Vol.
May 15, 2026
16°C or below
$5,450 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,668 Vol.
No
18°C
$23,094 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,933 Vol.
No
20°C
$9,330 Vol.
No
21°C
$20,543 Vol.
No
22°C
$21,430 Vol.
No
23°C
$31,824 Vol.
No
24°C
$19,473 Vol.
No
25°C
$16,913 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$22,978 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and real-time observations drive the 100% market-implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 15, with hourly projections peaking at 27-29°C around 3 PM KST under clear skies, light winds, and subsidence from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm advection. Current station data already shows temperatures climbing past 25°C mid-afternoon, aligning with GFS and ECMWF model consensus for above-normal heat—following yesterday's confirmed 26.3°C high—against mid-May climatological averages near 23°C. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud development or a northerly surge disrupting the ridge, though 0-10% precipitation odds and stable steering patterns minimize such risks; traders await KMA's end-of-day official maximum for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$185,638Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and real-time observations drive the 100% market-implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 15, with hourly projections peaking at 27-29°C around 3 PM KST under clear skies, light winds, and subsidence from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm advection. Current station data already shows temperatures climbing past 25°C mid-afternoon, aligning with GFS and ECMWF model consensus for above-normal heat—following yesterday's confirmed 26.3°C high—against mid-May climatological averages near 23°C. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud development or a northerly surge disrupting the ridge, though 0-10% precipitation odds and stable steering patterns minimize such risks; traders await KMA's end-of-day official maximum for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$185,638Tanggal Berakhir
May 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and real-time observations drive the 100% market-implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 15, with hourly projections peaking at 27-29°C around 3 PM KST under clear skies, light winds, and subsidence from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm advection. Current station data already shows temperatures climbing past 25°C mid-afternoon, aligning with GFS and ECMWF model consensus for above-normal heat—following yesterday's confirmed 26.3°C high—against mid-May climatological averages near 23°C. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud development or a northerly surge disrupting the ridge, though 0-10% precipitation odds and stable steering patterns minimize such risks; traders await KMA's end-of-day official maximum for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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