Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on May 16, reflecting tight clustering in the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and KNMI guidance around 12–14°C maxima. Persistent northerly winds are advecting cool, moist maritime air from the North Sea across northwest Europe, capping daytime highs below the mid-May climatological average of 16°C through scattered showers and partial cloud cover that limit solar insolation. Recent verifications—13°C highs on May 13 and 14—bolster model reliability amid low short-range uncertainty, though urban heat island effects or unexpected clearing could shift outcomes by 1°C; KNMI hourly observations will provide final resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 16?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 16?
13°C 47%
14°C 26%
12°C 22%
15°C 3.6%
BARU
BARU
May 16, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
22%
13°C
47%
14°C
26%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 47%
14°C 26%
12°C 22%
15°C 3.6%
BARU
BARU
May 16, 2026
8°C or below
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$647 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,057 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$537 Vol.
2%
12°C
$1,058 Vol.
22%
13°C
$1,260 Vol.
47%
14°C
$981 Vol.
26%
15°C
$434 Vol.
4%
16°C
$549 Vol.
1%
17°C
$721 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$1,023 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on May 16, reflecting tight clustering in the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and KNMI guidance around 12–14°C maxima. Persistent northerly winds are advecting cool, moist maritime air from the North Sea across northwest Europe, capping daytime highs below the mid-May climatological average of 16°C through scattered showers and partial cloud cover that limit solar insolation. Recent verifications—13°C highs on May 13 and 14—bolster model reliability amid low short-range uncertainty, though urban heat island effects or unexpected clearing could shift outcomes by 1°C; KNMI hourly observations will provide final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volume
$9,741Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on May 16, reflecting tight clustering in the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and KNMI guidance around 12–14°C maxima. Persistent northerly winds are advecting cool, moist maritime air from the North Sea across northwest Europe, capping daytime highs below the mid-May climatological average of 16°C through scattered showers and partial cloud cover that limit solar insolation. Recent verifications—13°C highs on May 13 and 14—bolster model reliability amid low short-range uncertainty, though urban heat island effects or unexpected clearing could shift outcomes by 1°C; KNMI hourly observations will provide final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,741Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:47 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on May 16, reflecting tight clustering in the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and KNMI guidance around 12–14°C maxima. Persistent northerly winds are advecting cool, moist maritime air from the North Sea across northwest Europe, capping daytime highs below the mid-May climatological average of 16°C through scattered showers and partial cloud cover that limit solar insolation. Recent verifications—13°C highs on May 13 and 14—bolster model reliability amid low short-range uncertainty, though urban heat island effects or unexpected clearing could shift outcomes by 1°C; KNMI hourly observations will provide final resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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