The near-certain market-implied probability (99.8%) of Mexico City reaching 24°C or higher on May 16 stems from the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast, which projects a high of 26-28°C during warm afternoon conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds of 10-20 km/h. This consensus aligns with global numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF, showing subsiding high-pressure air favoring solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, consistent with late-May dry-season climatology where average highs exceed 25°C. Realistic challenges include forecasted showers (5-25 mm possible, with thunder risk) suppressing daytime maxima or an unforeseen cool front intrusion, though model ensembles deem these low-probability outliers; final SMN hourly observations at Benito Juárez Airport will resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 16?
24°C or higher 99.8%
19°C <1%
23°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
BARU
$28,953 Vol.
BARU
$28,953 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
100%
24°C or higher 99.8%
19°C <1%
23°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
BARU
$28,953 Vol.
BARU
$28,953 Vol.
May 16, 2026
14°C or below
$1,650 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,730 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,515 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,266 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,690 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,668 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$9,095 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,213 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,415 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$5,577 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The near-certain market-implied probability (99.8%) of Mexico City reaching 24°C or higher on May 16 stems from the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast, which projects a high of 26-28°C during warm afternoon conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds of 10-20 km/h. This consensus aligns with global numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF, showing subsiding high-pressure air favoring solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, consistent with late-May dry-season climatology where average highs exceed 25°C. Realistic challenges include forecasted showers (5-25 mm possible, with thunder risk) suppressing daytime maxima or an unforeseen cool front intrusion, though model ensembles deem these low-probability outliers; final SMN hourly observations at Benito Juárez Airport will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$28,953Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The near-certain market-implied probability (99.8%) of Mexico City reaching 24°C or higher on May 16 stems from the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast, which projects a high of 26-28°C during warm afternoon conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds of 10-20 km/h. This consensus aligns with global numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF, showing subsiding high-pressure air favoring solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, consistent with late-May dry-season climatology where average highs exceed 25°C. Realistic challenges include forecasted showers (5-25 mm possible, with thunder risk) suppressing daytime maxima or an unforeseen cool front intrusion, though model ensembles deem these low-probability outliers; final SMN hourly observations at Benito Juárez Airport will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,953Tanggal Berakhir
May 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The near-certain market-implied probability (99.8%) of Mexico City reaching 24°C or higher on May 16 stems from the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast, which projects a high of 26-28°C during warm afternoon conditions with partly cloudy skies and light winds of 10-20 km/h. This consensus aligns with global numerical weather prediction models like GFS and ECMWF, showing subsiding high-pressure air favoring solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation, consistent with late-May dry-season climatology where average highs exceed 25°C. Realistic challenges include forecasted showers (5-25 mm possible, with thunder risk) suppressing daytime maxima or an unforeseen cool front intrusion, though model ensembles deem these low-probability outliers; final SMN hourly observations at Benito Juárez Airport will resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan