Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs of 27–29°C for Mexico City on May 17, aligning with the 96.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. This stems from persistent high-pressure ridging, ample solar insolation at 2,240 m elevation, and May climatology that averages 26–27°C maximums at Benito Juárez International Airport, with recent observations confirming 26–29°C on May 14–16. Light afternoon showers may develop but are not expected to produce sustained cloud cover sufficient to suppress temperatures below the threshold. The primary uncertainty remains any unexpected increase in convective activity that could enhance cooling, though current guidance indicates low likelihood before final hourly data resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 17?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 17?
26°C or higher 96.6%
25°C 1.1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
BARU
$15,604 Vol.
BARU
$15,604 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
97%
26°C or higher 96.6%
25°C 1.1%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
BARU
$15,604 Vol.
BARU
$15,604 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
$1,256 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,148 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,954 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,310 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$847 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$692 Vol.
1%
24°C
$951 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,443 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$779 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs of 27–29°C for Mexico City on May 17, aligning with the 96.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. This stems from persistent high-pressure ridging, ample solar insolation at 2,240 m elevation, and May climatology that averages 26–27°C maximums at Benito Juárez International Airport, with recent observations confirming 26–29°C on May 14–16. Light afternoon showers may develop but are not expected to produce sustained cloud cover sufficient to suppress temperatures below the threshold. The primary uncertainty remains any unexpected increase in convective activity that could enhance cooling, though current guidance indicates low likelihood before final hourly data resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$15,604Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs of 27–29°C for Mexico City on May 17, aligning with the 96.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. This stems from persistent high-pressure ridging, ample solar insolation at 2,240 m elevation, and May climatology that averages 26–27°C maximums at Benito Juárez International Airport, with recent observations confirming 26–29°C on May 14–16. Light afternoon showers may develop but are not expected to produce sustained cloud cover sufficient to suppress temperatures below the threshold. The primary uncertainty remains any unexpected increase in convective activity that could enhance cooling, though current guidance indicates low likelihood before final hourly data resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,604Tanggal Berakhir
May 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs of 27–29°C for Mexico City on May 17, aligning with the 96.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. This stems from persistent high-pressure ridging, ample solar insolation at 2,240 m elevation, and May climatology that averages 26–27°C maximums at Benito Juárez International Airport, with recent observations confirming 26–29°C on May 14–16. Light afternoon showers may develop but are not expected to produce sustained cloud cover sufficient to suppress temperatures below the threshold. The primary uncertainty remains any unexpected increase in convective activity that could enhance cooling, though current guidance indicates low likelihood before final hourly data resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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