Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 14 (99.8% implied probability), anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast and Hong Kong Observatory bulletin projecting a daytime maximum of 24°C under persistent cloud cover, moderate northeast winds, and high humidity that limit solar heating. Morning observations logged below 20°C, aligning with model consensus from recent runs showing low-level moisture suppressing convective warming and urban heat island amplification. This positioning reflects historical May patterns where similar synoptic setups cap highs around 24°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing 1-2°C of late heating, though steering currents favor stability; final CMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
24°C 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$153,871 Vol.
$153,871 Vol.
May 14, 2026
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
24°C 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$153,871 Vol.
$153,871 Vol.
May 14, 2026
24°C
$24,856 Vol.
100%
25°C
$12,409 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$16,218 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$15,628 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$29,778 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$14,465 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$6,071 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,679 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$3,152 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 14 (99.8% implied probability), anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast and Hong Kong Observatory bulletin projecting a daytime maximum of 24°C under persistent cloud cover, moderate northeast winds, and high humidity that limit solar heating. Morning observations logged below 20°C, aligning with model consensus from recent runs showing low-level moisture suppressing convective warming and urban heat island amplification. This positioning reflects historical May patterns where similar synoptic setups cap highs around 24°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing 1-2°C of late heating, though steering currents favor stability; final CMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$153,871Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 14 (99.8% implied probability), anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast and Hong Kong Observatory bulletin projecting a daytime maximum of 24°C under persistent cloud cover, moderate northeast winds, and high humidity that limit solar heating. Morning observations logged below 20°C, aligning with model consensus from recent runs showing low-level moisture suppressing convective warming and urban heat island amplification. This positioning reflects historical May patterns where similar synoptic setups cap highs around 24°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing 1-2°C of late heating, though steering currents favor stability; final CMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$153,871Tanggal Berakhir
May 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 12:22 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 24°C in Shanghai on May 14 (99.8% implied probability), anchored by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast and Hong Kong Observatory bulletin projecting a daytime maximum of 24°C under persistent cloud cover, moderate northeast winds, and high humidity that limit solar heating. Morning observations logged below 20°C, aligning with model consensus from recent runs showing low-level moisture suppressing convective warming and urban heat island amplification. This positioning reflects historical May patterns where similar synoptic setups cap highs around 24°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing allowing 1-2°C of late heating, though steering currents favor stability; final CMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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