Iceland's August 29 referendum asks voters whether to resume EU accession negotiations after a 13-year pause, a narrow question that would trigger talks but require a later vote on any final deal. Late polls show a knife-edge contest, with Gallup giving No a 51.6% to 48.4% edge and Maskína showing the reverse at 51.3% Yes, leaving the margin of victory highly uncertain. Fisheries rights, currency stability, and sovereignty remain central fault lines, while recent geopolitical pressures including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns have kept the race tight. Trader pricing, with Other at 50% and sub-3% margins for either side collectively dominant, reflects this polling volatility and the expectation that any decisive result will likely fall within a few percentage points.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo 9–12% 43%
No 3–6% 36%
No 12–15% 36%
Yes <3% 29%
BARU
BARU
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
4%
Yes 12–15%
10%
Yes 9–12%
1%
Yes 6–9%
1%
Yes 3–6%
19%
Yes <3%
29%
No <3%
44%
No 3–6%
36%
No 6–9%
2%
No 9–12%
43%
No 12–15%
36%
No 15%+
16%
No 9–12% 43%
No 3–6% 36%
No 12–15% 36%
Yes <3% 29%
BARU
BARU
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$108 Vol.
4%
Yes 12–15%
$106 Vol.
10%
Yes 9–12%
$21 Vol.
1%
Yes 6–9%
$11 Vol.
1%
Yes 3–6%
$47 Vol.
19%
Yes <3%
$44 Vol.
29%
No <3%
$43 Vol.
44%
No 3–6%
$24 Vol.
36%
No 6–9%
$24 Vol.
2%
No 9–12%
$22 Vol.
43%
No 12–15%
$86 Vol.
36%
No 15%+
$16 Vol.
16%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum asks voters whether to resume EU accession negotiations after a 13-year pause, a narrow question that would trigger talks but require a later vote on any final deal. Late polls show a knife-edge contest, with Gallup giving No a 51.6% to 48.4% edge and Maskína showing the reverse at 51.3% Yes, leaving the margin of victory highly uncertain. Fisheries rights, currency stability, and sovereignty remain central fault lines, while recent geopolitical pressures including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns have kept the race tight. Trader pricing, with Other at 50% and sub-3% margins for either side collectively dominant, reflects this polling volatility and the expectation that any decisive result will likely fall within a few percentage points.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$553Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum asks voters whether to resume EU accession negotiations after a 13-year pause, a narrow question that would trigger talks but require a later vote on any final deal. Late polls show a knife-edge contest, with Gallup giving No a 51.6% to 48.4% edge and Maskína showing the reverse at 51.3% Yes, leaving the margin of victory highly uncertain. Fisheries rights, currency stability, and sovereignty remain central fault lines, while recent geopolitical pressures including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns have kept the race tight. Trader pricing, with Other at 50% and sub-3% margins for either side collectively dominant, reflects this polling volatility and the expectation that any decisive result will likely fall within a few percentage points.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$553Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iceland's August 29 referendum asks voters whether to resume EU accession negotiations after a 13-year pause, a narrow question that would trigger talks but require a later vote on any final deal. Late polls show a knife-edge contest, with Gallup giving No a 51.6% to 48.4% edge and Maskína showing the reverse at 51.3% Yes, leaving the margin of victory highly uncertain. Fisheries rights, currency stability, and sovereignty remain central fault lines, while recent geopolitical pressures including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns have kept the race tight. Trader pricing, with Other at 50% and sub-3% margins for either side collectively dominant, reflects this polling volatility and the expectation that any decisive result will likely fall within a few percentage points.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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