Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in late June 2026, including a projectile or drone attack on a cargo ship on June 25 and a reported tanker incident shortly after. These actions occur amid the broader 2026 Iran conflict, where Tehran seeks to assert control over the waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, enforce transit coordination or fees, and counter U.S. naval blockades and escort operations. U.S. Central Command has responded with targeted strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, while ship traffic remains heavily disrupted with rerouting and reduced transits. Trader consensus on specific future dates for successful Iranian targeting reflects ongoing IRGC Navy activity, U.S. responses, and any diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify maritime incidents in the coming weeks.
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Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
BARU
$16,967 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
July 1
2%
July 8
36%
July 15
53%
July 31
68%
August 31
86%
$16,967 Vol.
July 1
$2,837 Vol.
2%
July 8
$2,267 Vol.
36%
July 15
$8,045 Vol.
53%
July 31
$1,889 Vol.
68%
August 31
$1,930 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in late June 2026, including a projectile or drone attack on a cargo ship on June 25 and a reported tanker incident shortly after. These actions occur amid the broader 2026 Iran conflict, where Tehran seeks to assert control over the waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, enforce transit coordination or fees, and counter U.S. naval blockades and escort operations. U.S. Central Command has responded with targeted strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, while ship traffic remains heavily disrupted with rerouting and reduced transits. Trader consensus on specific future dates for successful Iranian targeting reflects ongoing IRGC Navy activity, U.S. responses, and any diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify maritime incidents in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$16,967Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in late June 2026, including a projectile or drone attack on a cargo ship on June 25 and a reported tanker incident shortly after. These actions occur amid the broader 2026 Iran conflict, where Tehran seeks to assert control over the waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, enforce transit coordination or fees, and counter U.S. naval blockades and escort operations. U.S. Central Command has responded with targeted strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, while ship traffic remains heavily disrupted with rerouting and reduced transits. Trader consensus on specific future dates for successful Iranian targeting reflects ongoing IRGC Navy activity, U.S. responses, and any diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify maritime incidents in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$16,967Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in late June 2026, including a projectile or drone attack on a cargo ship on June 25 and a reported tanker incident shortly after. These actions occur amid the broader 2026 Iran conflict, where Tehran seeks to assert control over the waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, enforce transit coordination or fees, and counter U.S. naval blockades and escort operations. U.S. Central Command has responded with targeted strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, while ship traffic remains heavily disrupted with rerouting and reduced transits. Trader consensus on specific future dates for successful Iranian targeting reflects ongoing IRGC Navy activity, U.S. responses, and any diplomatic signals that could de-escalate or intensify maritime incidents in the coming weeks.
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