United List (AS) secured roughly 35-36% of the vote in Latvia’s October 3 Saeima election, establishing a margin well above 20 points over Latvia First. This outcome reflects voter priorities on national security, sustained 5% GDP defense spending, and continued support for Ukraine amid tensions with Russia, alongside economic and social concerns. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist alliance outperformed pre-election polling expectations, drawing broad backing in a low-turnout contest near 52%. The trader consensus on a commanding lead aligns with exit polls and near-complete counts confirming AS’s historic result. Final official tallies or minor procedural adjustments remain the primary variables that could narrow the reported margin.