The abbreviated timeframe remaining before 2027—spanning only months—underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability, consistent with USGS long-term forecasts showing roughly 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over 30 years. Background seismicity rates and fault recurrence intervals on systems like the San Andreas and San Jacinto indicate low near-term likelihood absent precursors, with recent USGS monitoring showing only minor activity. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include an unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid model revisions from new seismic data, though historical patterns suggest such shifts remain improbable in the compressed window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
5% peluang
$16,222 Vol.
$16,222 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$16,222 Vol.
$16,222 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The abbreviated timeframe remaining before 2027—spanning only months—underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability, consistent with USGS long-term forecasts showing roughly 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over 30 years. Background seismicity rates and fault recurrence intervals on systems like the San Andreas and San Jacinto indicate low near-term likelihood absent precursors, with recent USGS monitoring showing only minor activity. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include an unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid model revisions from new seismic data, though historical patterns suggest such shifts remain improbable in the compressed window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,222Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The abbreviated timeframe remaining before 2027—spanning only months—underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability, consistent with USGS long-term forecasts showing roughly 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over 30 years. Background seismicity rates and fault recurrence intervals on systems like the San Andreas and San Jacinto indicate low near-term likelihood absent precursors, with recent USGS monitoring showing only minor activity. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include an unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid model revisions from new seismic data, though historical patterns suggest such shifts remain improbable in the compressed window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,222Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The abbreviated timeframe remaining before 2027—spanning only months—underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability, consistent with USGS long-term forecasts showing roughly 60% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater event in the Los Angeles region over 30 years. Background seismicity rates and fault recurrence intervals on systems like the San Andreas and San Jacinto indicate low near-term likelihood absent precursors, with recent USGS monitoring showing only minor activity. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include an unexpected foreshock swarm or rapid model revisions from new seismic data, though historical patterns suggest such shifts remain improbable in the compressed window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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