Merck and Moderna maintain a long-standing 50/50 profit-sharing collaboration on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene/V940) paired with Keytruda, reinforced by positive late-stage melanoma data released August 19 that drove Moderna shares sharply higher. This partnership already delivers combined development and commercialization benefits without requiring a full merger or acquisition. Merck has pursued disciplined, smaller-scale deals—such as its recent $6.7 billion Terns acquisition—while signaling a preference for transactions under $15 billion to offset the Keytruda patent cliff, making a transformative tie-up with Moderna’s roughly $25 billion market capitalization unlikely. No regulatory filings, analyst reports, or management commentary indicate imminent M&A discussions, supporting the market-implied odds heavily favoring no announcement in 2026.
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Dec 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Merck and Moderna maintain a long-standing 50/50 profit-sharing collaboration on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene/V940) paired with Keytruda, reinforced by positive late-stage melanoma data released August 19 that drove Moderna shares sharply higher. This partnership already delivers combined development and commercialization benefits without requiring a full merger or acquisition. Merck has pursued disciplined, smaller-scale deals—such as its recent $6.7 billion Terns acquisition—while signaling a preference for transactions under $15 billion to offset the Keytruda patent cliff, making a transformative tie-up with Moderna’s roughly $25 billion market capitalization unlikely. No regulatory filings, analyst reports, or management commentary indicate imminent M&A discussions, supporting the market-implied odds heavily favoring no announcement in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Merck and Moderna maintain a long-standing 50/50 profit-sharing collaboration on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene/V940) paired with Keytruda, reinforced by positive late-stage melanoma data released August 19 that drove Moderna shares sharply higher. This partnership already delivers combined development and commercialization benefits without requiring a full merger or acquisition. Merck has pursued disciplined, smaller-scale deals—such as its recent $6.7 billion Terns acquisition—while signaling a preference for transactions under $15 billion to offset the Keytruda patent cliff, making a transformative tie-up with Moderna’s roughly $25 billion market capitalization unlikely. No regulatory filings, analyst reports, or management commentary indicate imminent M&A discussions, supporting the market-implied odds heavily favoring no announcement in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Merck and Moderna maintain a long-standing 50/50 profit-sharing collaboration on their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene/V940) paired with Keytruda, reinforced by positive late-stage melanoma data released August 19 that drove Moderna shares sharply higher. This partnership already delivers combined development and commercialization benefits without requiring a full merger or acquisition. Merck has pursued disciplined, smaller-scale deals—such as its recent $6.7 billion Terns acquisition—while signaling a preference for transactions under $15 billion to offset the Keytruda patent cliff, making a transformative tie-up with Moderna’s roughly $25 billion market capitalization unlikely. No regulatory filings, analyst reports, or management commentary indicate imminent M&A discussions, supporting the market-implied odds heavily favoring no announcement in 2026.
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