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Pemilihan Umum·Missouri

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

icon for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Pemilihan Umum·Missouri

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Bell 16%+ 98.5%

Bell 12–16% 2.7%

Bell <4% <1%

Bell 4–8% <1%

Polymarket

$33,545 Vol.

Bell 16%+ 98.5%

Bell 12–16% 2.7%

Bell <4% <1%

Bell 4–8% <1%

Polymarket

$33,545 Vol.

Bell <4%

$7,606 Vol.

<1%

Bell 4–8%

$5,115 Vol.

<1%

Bell 8–12%

$1,863 Vol.

<1%

Bell 12–16%

$1,577 Vol.

3%

Bell 16%+

$2,086 Vol.

99%

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured a decisive victory in the August 4, 2026, Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, defeating former Representative Cori Bush 59.2% to 36.9% with minor candidates splitting the remainder. This produced a margin well above 16 points, aligning with the market's strong consensus on that outcome. Bell's position as the sitting member, combined with superior fundraising and external support, contributed to the lopsided result in the heavily Democratic district. Full certification of vote totals remains the primary outstanding factor that could theoretically adjust the exact margin, though the scale of the lead makes significant shifts improbable.

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$33,545
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured a decisive victory in the August 4, 2026, Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary, defeating former Representative Cori Bush 59.2% to 36.9% with minor candidates splitting the remainder. This produced a margin well above 16 points, aligning with the market's strong consensus on that outcome. Bell's position as the sitting member, combined with superior fundraising and external support, contributed to the lopsided result in the heavily Democratic district. Full certification of vote totals remains the primary outstanding factor that could theoretically adjust the exact margin, though the scale of the lead makes significant shifts improbable.

The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$33,545
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 26, 2026, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 10 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Bell 16%+" di 99%, diikuti oleh "Bell 12–16%" di 1%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 99¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" telah menghasilkan $33.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory," jelajahi 10 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" adalah "Bell 16%+" di 99%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 99% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Bell 12–16%" di 1%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.