NATO’s institutional framework, treaty obligations, and congressional constraints in the United States create substantial barriers to formal dissolution before 2027. Recent developments, including the Pentagon’s ongoing review of European deployments and NATO’s redrafting of its strategic concept to emphasize European leadership in conventional defense, reflect adaptation rather than alliance breakup. Officials have reaffirmed collective defense commitments at the Ankara summit and through ongoing exercises, while legal provisions require congressional approval for any U.S. withdrawal. Traders’ near-certain consensus on “No” aligns with these structural realities and the absence of coordinated exit moves by members. Plausible shifts could still arise from abrupt policy reversals by major capitals or unforeseen escalations that fracture consensus, though such outcomes remain remote within the timeframe.