New Hampshire’s November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate contest—an open-seat race between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu—produced voter participation consistent with recent midterm baselines. Early statewide returns and the Secretary of State’s pre-election projection of roughly 635,000 ballots aligned closely with the 600,000–650,000 range, reflecting typical midterm turnout in a state where 2022 produced 627,000 votes. Competitive polling, strong name recognition on both sides, and a school-funding ballot question supported steady participation without the surge associated with presidential years. With the election concluded and counts advancing, trader consensus has consolidated around this band. Only an unusually large late-count adjustment or certification discrepancy could realistically move the final total outside it.