Recent Q2 2026 CPI data showing annual inflation accelerating to 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport fuel costs and electricity prices—has shaped trader positioning for the October OCR decision. With the Official Cash Rate held steady at 2.25% through the May Monetary Policy Statement amid evidence of economic spare capacity, markets price an elevated 78% implied probability of no change as the baseline policy stance. Modest 33.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect ongoing vigilance around persistent price pressures and the October 22 inflation release, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given the inflation trajectory. Traders continue to monitor labor market data and global energy developments for any shifts in the rate path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 78%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 2.1%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
$10,280 Vol.
$10,280 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
34%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 2.1%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
$10,280 Vol.
$10,280 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$539 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$432 Vol.
2%
No change
$6,010 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$2,910 Vol.
34%
50+ bps increase
$389 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Q2 2026 CPI data showing annual inflation accelerating to 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport fuel costs and electricity prices—has shaped trader positioning for the October OCR decision. With the Official Cash Rate held steady at 2.25% through the May Monetary Policy Statement amid evidence of economic spare capacity, markets price an elevated 78% implied probability of no change as the baseline policy stance. Modest 33.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect ongoing vigilance around persistent price pressures and the October 22 inflation release, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given the inflation trajectory. Traders continue to monitor labor market data and global energy developments for any shifts in the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$10,280Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Q2 2026 CPI data showing annual inflation accelerating to 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport fuel costs and electricity prices—has shaped trader positioning for the October OCR decision. With the Official Cash Rate held steady at 2.25% through the May Monetary Policy Statement amid evidence of economic spare capacity, markets price an elevated 78% implied probability of no change as the baseline policy stance. Modest 33.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect ongoing vigilance around persistent price pressures and the October 22 inflation release, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given the inflation trajectory. Traders continue to monitor labor market data and global energy developments for any shifts in the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$10,280Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 CPI data showing annual inflation accelerating to 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport fuel costs and electricity prices—has shaped trader positioning for the October OCR decision. With the Official Cash Rate held steady at 2.25% through the May Monetary Policy Statement amid evidence of economic spare capacity, markets price an elevated 78% implied probability of no change as the baseline policy stance. Modest 33.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike reflect ongoing vigilance around persistent price pressures and the October 22 inflation release, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given the inflation trajectory. Traders continue to monitor labor market data and global energy developments for any shifts in the rate path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
69%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
85%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision?
90%
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