**Traders price a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at roughly 26.5% (73.5% for none) because the court's oldest members have signaled continued service and no retirements or health-driven departures have been announced.** Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76) have indicated they intend to remain through at least the end of the 2026 term, with Alito stating in early August that he is “here for another term.” Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), along with the younger justices, show no comparable signals or reported issues that would prompt a departure. Speculation earlier in 2026 about strategic timing ahead of the midterms has not produced action, and historical patterns show justices often serve well into their late 70s or beyond absent acute circumstances. Absent new developments such as sudden health changes or explicit retirement statements before year-end, the current composition is expected to hold.