**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Viktor Orbán will not be arrested by December 31, 2026, reflecting the gap between ongoing investigations into his former government and any personal detention.** Following the April 2026 parliamentary election defeat of Fidesz and Orbán’s 16-year tenure, the new Tisza government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar secured a supermajority and launched anti-corruption probes, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers and examinations of National Cultural Fund grants, COVID-19 ventilator purchases, and public contracts. Leaks in June 2026 from the Prosecutor General’s office referenced Orbán among officials potentially linked to decisions in the Ukrainian cash convoy case, prompting a lawyer’s motion for his detention alongside other former officials. These steps have produced charges against some associates and institutional purges—such as the removal of Orbán-appointed figures via constitutional amendments—but have not yielded formal charges or an arrest warrant against Orbán himself. Hungarian prosecutors have moved cautiously on high-profile cases, with some resistance from holdover appointees, while the government emphasizes asset recovery and systemic reforms over rapid personal accountability. With only four months remaining in the resolution window, procedural requirements, political calculations around backlash, and the focus on longer-term legal processes make an arrest before year-end improbable under current conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui7% peluang
$33,674 Vol.
$33,674 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% peluang
$33,674 Vol.
$33,674 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Viktor Orbán will not be arrested by December 31, 2026, reflecting the gap between ongoing investigations into his former government and any personal detention.**
Following the April 2026 parliamentary election defeat of Fidesz and Orbán’s 16-year tenure, the new Tisza government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar secured a supermajority and launched anti-corruption probes, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers and examinations of National Cultural Fund grants, COVID-19 ventilator purchases, and public contracts. Leaks in June 2026 from the Prosecutor General’s office referenced Orbán among officials potentially linked to decisions in the Ukrainian cash convoy case, prompting a lawyer’s motion for his detention alongside other former officials.
These steps have produced charges against some associates and institutional purges—such as the removal of Orbán-appointed figures via constitutional amendments—but have not yielded formal charges or an arrest warrant against Orbán himself. Hungarian prosecutors have moved cautiously on high-profile cases, with some resistance from holdover appointees, while the government emphasizes asset recovery and systemic reforms over rapid personal accountability. With only four months remaining in the resolution window, procedural requirements, political calculations around backlash, and the focus on longer-term legal processes make an arrest before year-end improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volume
$33,674Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Viktor Orbán will not be arrested by December 31, 2026, reflecting the gap between ongoing investigations into his former government and any personal detention.**
Following the April 2026 parliamentary election defeat of Fidesz and Orbán’s 16-year tenure, the new Tisza government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar secured a supermajority and launched anti-corruption probes, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers and examinations of National Cultural Fund grants, COVID-19 ventilator purchases, and public contracts. Leaks in June 2026 from the Prosecutor General’s office referenced Orbán among officials potentially linked to decisions in the Ukrainian cash convoy case, prompting a lawyer’s motion for his detention alongside other former officials.
These steps have produced charges against some associates and institutional purges—such as the removal of Orbán-appointed figures via constitutional amendments—but have not yielded formal charges or an arrest warrant against Orbán himself. Hungarian prosecutors have moved cautiously on high-profile cases, with some resistance from holdover appointees, while the government emphasizes asset recovery and systemic reforms over rapid personal accountability. With only four months remaining in the resolution window, procedural requirements, political calculations around backlash, and the focus on longer-term legal processes make an arrest before year-end improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,674Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Viktor Orbán will not be arrested by December 31, 2026, reflecting the gap between ongoing investigations into his former government and any personal detention.** Following the April 2026 parliamentary election defeat of Fidesz and Orbán’s 16-year tenure, the new Tisza government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar secured a supermajority and launched anti-corruption probes, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers and examinations of National Cultural Fund grants, COVID-19 ventilator purchases, and public contracts. Leaks in June 2026 from the Prosecutor General’s office referenced Orbán among officials potentially linked to decisions in the Ukrainian cash convoy case, prompting a lawyer’s motion for his detention alongside other former officials. These steps have produced charges against some associates and institutional purges—such as the removal of Orbán-appointed figures via constitutional amendments—but have not yielded formal charges or an arrest warrant against Orbán himself. Hungarian prosecutors have moved cautiously on high-profile cases, with some resistance from holdover appointees, while the government emphasizes asset recovery and systemic reforms over rapid personal accountability. With only four months remaining in the resolution window, procedural requirements, political calculations around backlash, and the focus on longer-term legal processes make an arrest before year-end improbable under current conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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