NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, citing 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes with a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. Through mid-August only three tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, consistent with weak La Niña conditions and cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures suppressing intensification. Landfall locations remain highly uncertain because steering patterns and rapid intensification are governed by short-term atmospheric features predictable only days ahead. The climatological peak in early September and subsequent National Hurricane Center forecast updates will provide the next key data points for assessing U.S. Gulf or East Coast threats.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
BARU
$10,592 Vol.
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
14%
Louisiana
13%
Mississippi
9%
Alabama
7%
Florida
26%
Georgia
8%
South Carolina
10%
North Carolina
19%
Virginia
5%
Maryland
7%
Delaware
6%
New Jersey
4%
New York
2%
Connecticut
3%
Rhode Island
5%
Massachusetts
6%
New Hampshire
7%
Maine
6%
Hawaii
10%
$10,592 Vol.
Texas
$88 Vol.
14%
Louisiana
$303 Vol.
13%
Mississippi
$321 Vol.
9%
Alabama
$704 Vol.
7%
Florida
$234 Vol.
26%
Georgia
$1,529 Vol.
8%
South Carolina
$262 Vol.
10%
North Carolina
$40 Vol.
19%
Virginia
$458 Vol.
5%
Maryland
$952 Vol.
7%
Delaware
$411 Vol.
6%
New Jersey
$21 Vol.
4%
New York
$775 Vol.
2%
Connecticut
$435 Vol.
3%
Rhode Island
$544 Vol.
5%
Massachusetts
$1,111 Vol.
6%
New Hampshire
$817 Vol.
7%
Maine
$1,586 Vol.
6%
Hawaii
$0 Vol.
10%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, citing 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes with a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. Through mid-August only three tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, consistent with weak La Niña conditions and cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures suppressing intensification. Landfall locations remain highly uncertain because steering patterns and rapid intensification are governed by short-term atmospheric features predictable only days ahead. The climatological peak in early September and subsequent National Hurricane Center forecast updates will provide the next key data points for assessing U.S. Gulf or East Coast threats.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Volume
$10,592Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, citing 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes with a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. Through mid-August only three tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, consistent with weak La Niña conditions and cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures suppressing intensification. Landfall locations remain highly uncertain because steering patterns and rapid intensification are governed by short-term atmospheric features predictable only days ahead. The climatological peak in early September and subsequent National Hurricane Center forecast updates will provide the next key data points for assessing U.S. Gulf or East Coast threats.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Volume
$10,592Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, citing 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes with a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. Through mid-August only three tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, consistent with weak La Niña conditions and cooler Atlantic sea-surface temperatures suppressing intensification. Landfall locations remain highly uncertain because steering patterns and rapid intensification are governed by short-term atmospheric features predictable only days ahead. The climatological peak in early September and subsequent National Hurricane Center forecast updates will provide the next key data points for assessing U.S. Gulf or East Coast threats.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan