Anthropic’s recent partnership with SpaceX to access 220,000 GPUs at the Colossus data center, combined with the strong performance of Claude Opus 4.7 on reasoning and coding benchmarks, has driven trader consensus toward a 72.7% implied probability that the company will hold the leading large language model by the end of June. This infrastructure scaling has enabled doubled rate limits and accelerated iteration, positioning Anthropic ahead of competitors in developer adoption and capability demonstrations. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview maintains a solid 22% chance through competitive results on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant release in early May has not yet shifted sentiment enough to challenge the frontrunner. Upcoming model updates and benchmark releases before the resolution date remain key swing factors in this closely watched frontier race.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 72.7%
Google 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.1%
$6,005,492 Vol.
$6,005,492 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
73%
22%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.7%
Google 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.1%
$6,005,492 Vol.
$6,005,492 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$844,253 Vol.
73%
$545,967 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$343,483 Vol.
5%
xAI
$1,067,620 Vol.
1%
Meta
$136,722 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$504,470 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$163,552 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$303,570 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$483,572 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$156,694 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$160,096 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$383,338 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$364,295 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$382,384 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$165,478 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent partnership with SpaceX to access 220,000 GPUs at the Colossus data center, combined with the strong performance of Claude Opus 4.7 on reasoning and coding benchmarks, has driven trader consensus toward a 72.7% implied probability that the company will hold the leading large language model by the end of June. This infrastructure scaling has enabled doubled rate limits and accelerated iteration, positioning Anthropic ahead of competitors in developer adoption and capability demonstrations. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview maintains a solid 22% chance through competitive results on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant release in early May has not yet shifted sentiment enough to challenge the frontrunner. Upcoming model updates and benchmark releases before the resolution date remain key swing factors in this closely watched frontier race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$6,005,492Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent partnership with SpaceX to access 220,000 GPUs at the Colossus data center, combined with the strong performance of Claude Opus 4.7 on reasoning and coding benchmarks, has driven trader consensus toward a 72.7% implied probability that the company will hold the leading large language model by the end of June. This infrastructure scaling has enabled doubled rate limits and accelerated iteration, positioning Anthropic ahead of competitors in developer adoption and capability demonstrations. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview maintains a solid 22% chance through competitive results on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant release in early May has not yet shifted sentiment enough to challenge the frontrunner. Upcoming model updates and benchmark releases before the resolution date remain key swing factors in this closely watched frontier race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,005,492Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent partnership with SpaceX to access 220,000 GPUs at the Colossus data center, combined with the strong performance of Claude Opus 4.7 on reasoning and coding benchmarks, has driven trader consensus toward a 72.7% implied probability that the company will hold the leading large language model by the end of June. This infrastructure scaling has enabled doubled rate limits and accelerated iteration, positioning Anthropic ahead of competitors in developer adoption and capability demonstrations. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview maintains a solid 22% chance through competitive results on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant release in early May has not yet shifted sentiment enough to challenge the frontrunner. Upcoming model updates and benchmark releases before the resolution date remain key swing factors in this closely watched frontier race.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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