Anthropic's mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7, with confirmed gains in advanced software engineering and complex, long-running coding tasks, stands as the primary driver behind the 71.8% market-implied probability for the company to hold the leading large language model by end of June. Traders appear to view this as a durable edge in agentic workflows and benchmark performance on coding and reasoning evaluations, reinforced by its broad API availability and enterprise integrations. Google's 22% share reflects steady Gemini 3.1 updates, including the recent lightweight variant, yet lacks comparable momentum in frontier coding capabilities. OpenAI's early-May GPT-5.5 Instant rollout and xAI's Grok iterations trail due to narrower recent gains relative to Anthropic's demonstrated consistency. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new flagship announcements or major benchmark shifts could still alter the current consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 72.0%
Google 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.1%
$6,005,843 Vol.
$6,005,843 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
22%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.0%
Google 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.1%
$6,005,843 Vol.
$6,005,843 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$845,876 Vol.
72%
$545,967 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$343,483 Vol.
5%
xAI
$1,067,620 Vol.
1%
Meta
$136,780 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$504,472 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$163,552 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$303,570 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$483,577 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$156,698 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$160,153 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$383,398 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$364,300 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$382,384 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$165,479 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7, with confirmed gains in advanced software engineering and complex, long-running coding tasks, stands as the primary driver behind the 71.8% market-implied probability for the company to hold the leading large language model by end of June. Traders appear to view this as a durable edge in agentic workflows and benchmark performance on coding and reasoning evaluations, reinforced by its broad API availability and enterprise integrations. Google's 22% share reflects steady Gemini 3.1 updates, including the recent lightweight variant, yet lacks comparable momentum in frontier coding capabilities. OpenAI's early-May GPT-5.5 Instant rollout and xAI's Grok iterations trail due to narrower recent gains relative to Anthropic's demonstrated consistency. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new flagship announcements or major benchmark shifts could still alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$6,005,843Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7, with confirmed gains in advanced software engineering and complex, long-running coding tasks, stands as the primary driver behind the 71.8% market-implied probability for the company to hold the leading large language model by end of June. Traders appear to view this as a durable edge in agentic workflows and benchmark performance on coding and reasoning evaluations, reinforced by its broad API availability and enterprise integrations. Google's 22% share reflects steady Gemini 3.1 updates, including the recent lightweight variant, yet lacks comparable momentum in frontier coding capabilities. OpenAI's early-May GPT-5.5 Instant rollout and xAI's Grok iterations trail due to narrower recent gains relative to Anthropic's demonstrated consistency. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new flagship announcements or major benchmark shifts could still alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,005,843Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7, with confirmed gains in advanced software engineering and complex, long-running coding tasks, stands as the primary driver behind the 71.8% market-implied probability for the company to hold the leading large language model by end of June. Traders appear to view this as a durable edge in agentic workflows and benchmark performance on coding and reasoning evaluations, reinforced by its broad API availability and enterprise integrations. Google's 22% share reflects steady Gemini 3.1 updates, including the recent lightweight variant, yet lacks comparable momentum in frontier coding capabilities. OpenAI's early-May GPT-5.5 Instant rollout and xAI's Grok iterations trail due to narrower recent gains relative to Anthropic's demonstrated consistency. With roughly six weeks until resolution, any new flagship announcements or major benchmark shifts could still alter the current consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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