Arjun leads the tightly bunched field at 52% implied probability because dataminers have repeatedly spotted the hero in Dota 2 test servers and API files since late 2025, with fresh references appearing alongside event leaks in early 2026. Other rumored names and the broad "any different hero" option sit near 50% and 27% respectively, reflecting Valve's history of surprise reveals or delays around The International. The 20% chance assigned to no announcement at TI underscores uncertainty over whether the developer will time the drop for the Shanghai event or hold it for a later patch cycle. Recent patch activity and ongoing test-server churn have kept multiple outcomes viable, preventing any single name from pulling decisively ahead in trader consensus.