The primary driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 is the consensus forecast for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes, yielding just a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook stems from a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that are expected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting intensification. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, further tempering trader expectations. With no tropical cyclones formed as of mid-May and NOAA’s full seasonal outlook scheduled for release on May 21, any upward revision in storm counts or landfall risk could narrow the current odds gap.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$327,420 Vol.
$327,420 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$327,420 Vol.
$327,420 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The primary driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 is the consensus forecast for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes, yielding just a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook stems from a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that are expected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting intensification. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, further tempering trader expectations. With no tropical cyclones formed as of mid-May and NOAA’s full seasonal outlook scheduled for release on May 21, any upward revision in storm counts or landfall risk could narrow the current odds gap.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,420Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The primary driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 is the consensus forecast for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes, yielding just a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook stems from a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that are expected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting intensification. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, further tempering trader expectations. With no tropical cyclones formed as of mid-May and NOAA’s full seasonal outlook scheduled for release on May 21, any upward revision in storm counts or landfall risk could narrow the current odds gap.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,420Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The primary driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. before 2027 is the consensus forecast for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes, yielding just a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook stems from a weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño conditions that are expected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting intensification. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, further tempering trader expectations. With no tropical cyclones formed as of mid-May and NOAA’s full seasonal outlook scheduled for release on May 21, any upward revision in storm counts or landfall risk could narrow the current odds gap.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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