President Javier Milei’s administration has pivoted from initial dollarization pledges to a managed exchange-rate band and crawling-peg system backed by IMF financing and a late-2025 U.S. currency swap line. With fewer than six weeks remaining before the June 30, 2026 cutoff, no legislative framework or central-bank transition plan has advanced, leaving the peso as legal tender. Traders assign a 98.4 percent probability to “No” because these policy choices and the absence of congressional momentum create insurmountable barriers in the narrow window. Late executive action or an unforeseen legislative push could theoretically alter the outcome, yet both face entrenched fiscal, political, and public-preference constraints that have already delayed similar reforms.