**The 86.8% market-implied probability on “No” for Cardi B and Stefon Diggs getting engaged in 2026 reflects their documented on-again, off-again dynamic and absence of any confirmed path to marriage this year.** The pair, who welcomed a son in November 2025, experienced a reported split around February 2026 amid trust issues and social-media unfollows, followed by limited reconciliation attempts in spring (including a Mother’s Day appearance). Tensions resurfaced publicly with a May-June argument caught on video, after which Diggs described their status as “great” but deferred details to Cardi. By July 2026, Cardi publicly addressed fan calls for her to stay single, while reports noted she was seen with others and emphasized co-parenting without full commitment. As of August 2026, credible coverage continues to frame them as separated or navigating instability, with Cardi prioritizing her *Am I the Drama?* era, tour, and family. Key barriers to an engagement before year-end include the short timeline remaining, Cardi’s still-pending divorce from Offset, repeated cycles of reconciliation and conflict, and lack of recent positive signals (such as joint appearances or statements) that would typically precede such a step. Traders appear to view these patterns—coupled with entertainment-industry norms around high-profile, high-drama relationships—as strong evidence against resolution in the final months of 2026.