The Kremlin's public dismissal of any Putin-Ye meeting, delivered by spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in mid-August, has anchored trader expectations against an encounter by October 31. Although Ye announced October 10-11 concerts in St. Petersburg—prompting speculation from organizers and some Russian lawmakers about a possible sit-down—no official itinerary, diplomatic channels, or presidential calendar references have emerged. Concert plans have since unraveled after the Gazprom Arena withdrew, leaving the trip itself uncertain. Historical precedent of Ye's 2024 Russia visit without high-level engagement further supports the 97.5% "No" consensus. Only an abrupt, unannounced private arrangement or last-minute schedule change could alter the outcome before the deadline.