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icon for Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Politik·Kamala

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

icon for Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Politik·Kamala

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

30% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
30% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a male 2028 Democratic nominee at 70.5% ("No"), reflecting the current early primary landscape and limited top-tier female options.** National polling averages show Kamala Harris leading with roughly 24-27% support, ahead of Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and others, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails in single or low double digits. However, prediction markets price Newsom substantially higher for the nomination itself. Gretchen Whitmer has repeatedly downplayed or ruled out a bid, removing one of the party's strongest potential female contenders from battleground-state executive roles. Newsom recently stated he would not run if Harris enters, narrowing the field further. With few other prominent women polling competitively and Democrats weighing electability after 2024, traders appear to discount the probability of a female nominee despite Harris's name recognition and polling edge. Midterm campaign activity by Harris and shifting primary calendars have not yet altered this positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,547
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 8, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a male 2028 Democratic nominee at 70.5% ("No"), reflecting the current early primary landscape and limited top-tier female options.** National polling averages show Kamala Harris leading with roughly 24-27% support, ahead of Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and others, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails in single or low double digits. However, prediction markets price Newsom substantially higher for the nomination itself. Gretchen Whitmer has repeatedly downplayed or ruled out a bid, removing one of the party's strongest potential female contenders from battleground-state executive roles. Newsom recently stated he would not run if Harris enters, narrowing the field further. With few other prominent women polling competitively and Democrats weighing electability after 2024, traders appear to discount the probability of a female nominee despite Harris's name recognition and polling edge. Midterm campaign activity by Harris and shifting primary calendars have not yet altered this positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,547
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 8, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 30% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 30¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 30% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Feb 17, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" adalah 30% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 30% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.