The September 2026 security agreement signed by the United States, Denmark, and Greenland has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion, as it expands American basing rights at sites including Pituffik while explicitly reaffirming Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination. Early 2026 tensions, including public consideration of force and tariff threats, prompted bipartisan U.S. congressional opposition, NATO ally condemnation, and Danish contingency planning, leading to a diplomatic resolution rather than escalation. Traders assign 97.5% probability to no invasion due to these institutional constraints, alliance commitments, and the absence of active military preparations. Late-breaking developments such as Arctic security crises involving Russia or China, or abrupt shifts in executive policy, remain the primary variables that could still alter this consensus before year-end.