Skip to main content
icon for Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Geopolitik·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Geopolitik·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

3% peluang
Polymarket

$250,877 Vol.

3% peluang
Polymarket

$250,877 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, including intelligence support for Mexican operations against cartels such as the February 2026 raid that killed CJNG leader El Mencho, combined with joint border enforcement and extraditions, underpins trader consensus against a U.S. invasion. Rhetoric around targeted strikes has persisted amid fentanyl concerns and USMCA negotiations, yet no ground deployment or large-scale military action has materialized, with Mexico consistently rejecting sovereignty violations. Economic interdependence, diplomatic channels like the Security Implementation Group, and institutional barriers further reduce likelihood. Potential shifts could arise from sudden escalations in cross-border threats or major policy reversals before year-end, though current trends favor sustained partnership over intervention.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$250,877
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, including intelligence support for Mexican operations against cartels such as the February 2026 raid that killed CJNG leader El Mencho, combined with joint border enforcement and extraditions, underpins trader consensus against a U.S. invasion. Rhetoric around targeted strikes has persisted amid fentanyl concerns and USMCA negotiations, yet no ground deployment or large-scale military action has materialized, with Mexico consistently rejecting sovereignty violations. Economic interdependence, diplomatic channels like the Security Implementation Group, and institutional barriers further reduce likelihood. Potential shifts could arise from sudden escalations in cross-border threats or major policy reversals before year-end, though current trends favor sustained partnership over intervention.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$250,877
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Terkait

icon for Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

3%
icon for Apakah AS akan menginvasi Kuba pada tahun 2026?

Apakah AS akan menginvasi Kuba pada tahun 2026?

8%
Ya
icon for Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

6%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 3¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $250.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 5, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.