**Mary Peltola’s lead in Alaska’s August 18, 2026, nonpartisan top-four Senate primary has driven trader consensus toward a 6–9% margin of victory.** With roughly 80% of ballots counted, the former U.S. representative held 48% to incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 42.8%, a difference of more than five points and nearly 8,000 votes. Both candidates easily advanced to the November general election under the state’s ranked-choice system. Recent polling had shown a tight race, with some surveys placing Peltola narrowly ahead or within the margin of error before ranked-choice effects were fully modeled. The primary results aligned with those trends and confirmed Peltola’s stronger performance in a 16-candidate field that included a same-named Republican challenger. Traders have priced the 6–9% band at 85.5%, reflecting the incomplete but consistent vote tally, while assigning minimal probability to wider or narrower spreads or any Sullivan lead. The outcome remains subject to final certification and any late-count shifts, but current counting supports the leading interval.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPeltola 6–9% 86%
Peltola 3–6% 20%
Peltola 9–12% 9.4%
Peltola <3% <1%
$20,234 Vol.
$20,234 Vol.
18 ago 2026
Peltola 15%+
<1%
Peltola 12–15%
<1%
Peltola 9–12%
9%
Peltola 6–9%
86%
Peltola 3–6%
20%
Peltola <3%
<1%
Sullivan <3%
<1%
Sullivan 3–6%
<1%
Sullivan 6–9%
<1%
Sullivan 9–12%
<1%
Sullivan 12%+
<1%
Peltola 6–9% 86%
Peltola 3–6% 20%
Peltola 9–12% 9.4%
Peltola <3% <1%
$20,234 Vol.
$20,234 Vol.
18 ago 2026
Peltola 15%+
$512 Vol.
<1%
Peltola 12–15%
$525 Vol.
<1%
Peltola 9–12%
$776 Vol.
9%
Peltola 6–9%
$1,950 Vol.
86%
Peltola 3–6%
$11,907 Vol.
20%
Peltola <3%
$1,296 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan <3%
$665 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 3–6%
$1,137 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 6–9%
$657 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 9–12%
$387 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 12%+
$442 Vol.
<1%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Mary Peltola’s lead in Alaska’s August 18, 2026, nonpartisan top-four Senate primary has driven trader consensus toward a 6–9% margin of victory.** With roughly 80% of ballots counted, the former U.S. representative held 48% to incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 42.8%, a difference of more than five points and nearly 8,000 votes. Both candidates easily advanced to the November general election under the state’s ranked-choice system.
Recent polling had shown a tight race, with some surveys placing Peltola narrowly ahead or within the margin of error before ranked-choice effects were fully modeled. The primary results aligned with those trends and confirmed Peltola’s stronger performance in a 16-candidate field that included a same-named Republican challenger. Traders have priced the 6–9% band at 85.5%, reflecting the incomplete but consistent vote tally, while assigning minimal probability to wider or narrower spreads or any Sullivan lead. The outcome remains subject to final certification and any late-count shifts, but current counting supports the leading interval.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,234Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Mary Peltola’s lead in Alaska’s August 18, 2026, nonpartisan top-four Senate primary has driven trader consensus toward a 6–9% margin of victory.** With roughly 80% of ballots counted, the former U.S. representative held 48% to incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 42.8%, a difference of more than five points and nearly 8,000 votes. Both candidates easily advanced to the November general election under the state’s ranked-choice system.
Recent polling had shown a tight race, with some surveys placing Peltola narrowly ahead or within the margin of error before ranked-choice effects were fully modeled. The primary results aligned with those trends and confirmed Peltola’s stronger performance in a 16-candidate field that included a same-named Republican challenger. Traders have priced the 6–9% band at 85.5%, reflecting the incomplete but consistent vote tally, while assigning minimal probability to wider or narrower spreads or any Sullivan lead. The outcome remains subject to final certification and any late-count shifts, but current counting supports the leading interval.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$20,234Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Mary Peltola’s lead in Alaska’s August 18, 2026, nonpartisan top-four Senate primary has driven trader consensus toward a 6–9% margin of victory.** With roughly 80% of ballots counted, the former U.S. representative held 48% to incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 42.8%, a difference of more than five points and nearly 8,000 votes. Both candidates easily advanced to the November general election under the state’s ranked-choice system. Recent polling had shown a tight race, with some surveys placing Peltola narrowly ahead or within the margin of error before ranked-choice effects were fully modeled. The primary results aligned with those trends and confirmed Peltola’s stronger performance in a 16-candidate field that included a same-named Republican challenger. Traders have priced the 6–9% band at 85.5%, reflecting the incomplete but consistent vote tally, while assigning minimal probability to wider or narrower spreads or any Sullivan lead. The outcome remains subject to final certification and any late-count shifts, but current counting supports the leading interval.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Mary Peltola otterrà il maggior numero di voti nel turno finale delle primarie per il Senato dell'Alaska?
99%
Sì
Peggy Flanagan vincerà le primarie democratiche del Senato del Minnesota con un margine del 15–20%?
98%
Sì
Abdul El-Sayed vincerà le primarie democratiche del Senato del Michigan con meno del 5% di vantaggio?
100%
Sì
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti