Democrats hold a substantial lead in 2026 House forecasts, with models projecting a net gain of 12–26 seats and control probabilities ranging from 85% to 97% as of late October. Recent shifts by the Cook Political Report moved over a dozen races toward Democrats, expanding the battleground map and reflecting sustained generic ballot advantages of 8–10 points. Election Day on November 3 features dozens of competitive districts, many in states with significant mail and early voting that extend tabulation timelines. The Associated Press typically projects majority control once enough races reach high-confidence thresholds, though close contests, provisional ballots, and any recounts can delay calls beyond election night. Traders weigh these counting mechanics against the breadth of Democratic-leaning districts when assessing resolution timing.