Recent special elections showing a sustained Democratic swing and polls highlighting economic concerns as the dominant voter priority have kept expected 2026 House turnout clustered in the 115-125 million range. Midterms typically see lower participation than presidential years, yet elevated polarization and mobilization among college-educated voters—who favor Democrats—support the upper end of recent historical benchmarks like 2018 and 2022. Republicans face challenges energizing less consistent supporters without a presidential candidate on the ballot, while both parties intensify get-out-the-vote efforts amid competitive primaries and ballot measures. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether these dynamics will produce another high-turnout cycle or moderate participation closer to longer-term averages.