US midterm elections occur on a date fixed by federal statute every two years, with the 2026 cycle set for November 3. This legal structure, combined with constitutional requirements for regular congressional elections and the absence of any presidential authority to unilaterally alter the schedule, underpins the 96% trader consensus on "Yes." Primary factors include historical precedent of elections proceeding amid crises, ongoing primary activity through summer and fall 2026, and no active congressional effort or national emergency prompting postponement. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited to an act of Congress or extraordinary events such as a severe constitutional crisis, though none are evident in current conditions.