Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and renewed activity by Hezbollah and Houthi forces have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace through mid-2026, including multiple shutdowns between February and July tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile and drone barrages. A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while EASA warnings in July highlighted ongoing risks over the Tel Aviv FIR from potential attacks. These developments, alongside the 2026 Lebanon conflict dynamics and intercepts of projectiles from Yemen, shape trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses in the coming weeks could alter the outlook, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$27,011,428 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
<1%
31 agosto
6%
$27,011,428 Vol.
15 agosto
$965,981 Vol.
<1%
31 agosto
$1,023,446 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and renewed activity by Hezbollah and Houthi forces have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace through mid-2026, including multiple shutdowns between February and July tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile and drone barrages. A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while EASA warnings in July highlighted ongoing risks over the Tel Aviv FIR from potential attacks. These developments, alongside the 2026 Lebanon conflict dynamics and intercepts of projectiles from Yemen, shape trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses in the coming weeks could alter the outlook, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$27,011,428Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and renewed activity by Hezbollah and Houthi forces have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace through mid-2026, including multiple shutdowns between February and July tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile and drone barrages. A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while EASA warnings in July highlighted ongoing risks over the Tel Aviv FIR from potential attacks. These developments, alongside the 2026 Lebanon conflict dynamics and intercepts of projectiles from Yemen, shape trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses in the coming weeks could alter the outlook, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,011,428Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and renewed activity by Hezbollah and Houthi forces have driven repeated temporary closures of Israeli airspace through mid-2026, including multiple shutdowns between February and July tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile and drone barrages. A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while EASA warnings in July highlighted ongoing risks over the Tel Aviv FIR from potential attacks. These developments, alongside the 2026 Lebanon conflict dynamics and intercepts of projectiles from Yemen, shape trader assessments of near-term closure probabilities. Scheduled diplomatic or military responses in the coming weeks could alter the outlook, though many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport due to volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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