Israeli airspace remains open after the April 2026 ceasefire concluded the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which triggered full closures in February-March amid missile barrages, but trader consensus reflects elevated risks from Hezbollah escalations along the Lebanon border. Hezbollah's recent FPV drone strikes and rocket fire since early April have prompted Israeli retaliatory airstrikes, IDF evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, and reports of planned ground operations last week. Israel's security cabinet assessed deep damage to Iranian financial pipelines supporting Hezbollah on May 14. U.S.-brokered truce talks scheduled for May 17 may ease tensions, though intensified barrages could overwhelm Iron Dome and force a major civilian aviation shutdown, as occurred previously. Ben Gurion Airport continues normal operations despite northern threats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$854,106 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 31
29%
30 giugno
41%
$854,106 Vol.
May 31
$353,051 Vol.
29%
30 giugno
$5,807 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli airspace remains open after the April 2026 ceasefire concluded the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which triggered full closures in February-March amid missile barrages, but trader consensus reflects elevated risks from Hezbollah escalations along the Lebanon border. Hezbollah's recent FPV drone strikes and rocket fire since early April have prompted Israeli retaliatory airstrikes, IDF evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, and reports of planned ground operations last week. Israel's security cabinet assessed deep damage to Iranian financial pipelines supporting Hezbollah on May 14. U.S.-brokered truce talks scheduled for May 17 may ease tensions, though intensified barrages could overwhelm Iron Dome and force a major civilian aviation shutdown, as occurred previously. Ben Gurion Airport continues normal operations despite northern threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$854,106Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli airspace remains open after the April 2026 ceasefire concluded the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which triggered full closures in February-March amid missile barrages, but trader consensus reflects elevated risks from Hezbollah escalations along the Lebanon border. Hezbollah's recent FPV drone strikes and rocket fire since early April have prompted Israeli retaliatory airstrikes, IDF evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, and reports of planned ground operations last week. Israel's security cabinet assessed deep damage to Iranian financial pipelines supporting Hezbollah on May 14. U.S.-brokered truce talks scheduled for May 17 may ease tensions, though intensified barrages could overwhelm Iron Dome and force a major civilian aviation shutdown, as occurred previously. Ben Gurion Airport continues normal operations despite northern threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$854,106Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli airspace remains open after the April 2026 ceasefire concluded the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which triggered full closures in February-March amid missile barrages, but trader consensus reflects elevated risks from Hezbollah escalations along the Lebanon border. Hezbollah's recent FPV drone strikes and rocket fire since early April have prompted Israeli retaliatory airstrikes, IDF evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, and reports of planned ground operations last week. Israel's security cabinet assessed deep damage to Iranian financial pipelines supporting Hezbollah on May 14. U.S.-brokered truce talks scheduled for May 17 may ease tensions, though intensified barrages could overwhelm Iron Dome and force a major civilian aviation shutdown, as occurred previously. Ben Gurion Airport continues normal operations despite northern threats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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