Recent vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on ADNOC tankers on August 13–14 amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced traffic, with market-implied odds assigning a combined 92.5% probability to fewer than 50 transits for the week of August 17. Heightened risks from Iranian IRGC actions, the U.S. naval blockade, and elevated insurance costs have prompted many operators to reroute or delay voyages, resulting in daily volumes recently averaging as low as 1–13 ships versus a historical norm near 60. Forward-looking sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation, though modest increases remain possible if enforcement eases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 17 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 17 agosto?
25-49 59%
<25 36%
50-74 4.3%
75-99 <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
23 ago 2026
<25
36%
25-49
59%
50-74
4%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 59%
<25 36%
50-74 4.3%
75-99 <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
23 ago 2026
<25
$1,449 Vol.
36%
25-49
$985 Vol.
59%
50-74
$230 Vol.
4%
75-99
$222 Vol.
1%
100+
$159 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on ADNOC tankers on August 13–14 amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced traffic, with market-implied odds assigning a combined 92.5% probability to fewer than 50 transits for the week of August 17. Heightened risks from Iranian IRGC actions, the U.S. naval blockade, and elevated insurance costs have prompted many operators to reroute or delay voyages, resulting in daily volumes recently averaging as low as 1–13 ships versus a historical norm near 60. Forward-looking sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation, though modest increases remain possible if enforcement eases.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$3,044Data di fine
23 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on ADNOC tankers on August 13–14 amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced traffic, with market-implied odds assigning a combined 92.5% probability to fewer than 50 transits for the week of August 17. Heightened risks from Iranian IRGC actions, the U.S. naval blockade, and elevated insurance costs have prompted many operators to reroute or delay voyages, resulting in daily volumes recently averaging as low as 1–13 ships versus a historical norm near 60. Forward-looking sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation, though modest increases remain possible if enforcement eases.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3,044Data di fine
23 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on ADNOC tankers on August 13–14 amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, have driven trader consensus toward sharply reduced traffic, with market-implied odds assigning a combined 92.5% probability to fewer than 50 transits for the week of August 17. Heightened risks from Iranian IRGC actions, the U.S. naval blockade, and elevated insurance costs have prompted many operators to reroute or delay voyages, resulting in daily volumes recently averaging as low as 1–13 ships versus a historical norm near 60. Forward-looking sentiment reflects persistent uncertainty around any near-term de-escalation, though modest increases remain possible if enforcement eases.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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