Ongoing severe restrictions and fresh attacks on tankers in early October 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly 3-5% of pre-crisis norms, sustaining market-implied odds near 97.5% against normalization by October 31. Persistent mines, competing Iranian and U.S.-backed transit corridors, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and unresolved sanctions exposure keep volumes far below historical benchmarks of 70-80 daily transits, with Brent crude holding above $99 amid supply uncertainty. Recent projectile strikes and Iranian warnings against unauthorized routes reinforce trader consensus that meaningful recovery within the month remains improbable. Tail risks include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough clearing mines or aligning transit regimes, though such scenarios appear constrained by entrenched geopolitical frictions and naval escalations.