**Recent diplomatic engagement and the extension of the US-China trade truce to January 10, 2027, following September 2026 meetings between President Trump and Xi Jinping, represent the main factors supporting the 84.5% implied probability that the US will not impose new broad sanctions on China by October 31.** The truce has paused escalated tariffs and export restrictions while both sides pursue further talks on tariffs, agricultural purchases, and rare earth supplies. Targeted US designations against Chinese entities and individuals tied to Iranian oil procurement and weapons programs have continued in late September and early October, but these focus on third-party enforcement rather than direct bilateral escalation. Ongoing negotiations and the short remaining timeline to the deadline reinforce trader expectations of no major new China-specific sanctions package before October 31.