Ongoing US-Iran tensions stemming from strikes that began in late February 2026 have kept the Strait of Hormuz under severe restrictions, with commercial traffic at roughly 3-7% of pre-crisis levels according to AIS and IMF PortWatch data. Iran has repeatedly stated it will not restore normal transit until seven conditions tied to the June Islamabad Memorandum—including an end to US naval actions, sanctions relief, and asset releases—are met, a position restated by parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in early October amid fresh tanker strikes reported by UKMTO. Limited coordinated passages under naval oversight have occurred, yet attacks persist and diplomatic exchanges remain stalled with no firm reopening timeline. These factors underpin trader expectations that full normalization is unlikely before year-end.