**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic well below pre-2026 levels, supporting the 57.5% trader consensus favoring “No” on full normalization by year-end.** Since the February 2026 escalation, Iran has imposed restrictions, rerouted vessels through its territorial waters, and conducted targeted strikes on noncompliant ships, prompting a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions. Multiple ceasefire and memorandum efforts, including the June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU, produced only partial or temporary increases in transits before renewed attacks—such as the series of strikes on UAE tankers in early-to-mid August—reversed gains. Current daily crossings remain in the low dozens or fewer, versus historical averages exceeding 100 vessels. Diplomatic channels with Oman on traffic-separation schemes and routes have advanced incrementally but remain conditioned on Iranian demands for sanctions relief and blockade removal. U.S. statements signal sustained economic pressure, while Iranian officials continue to tie reopening to concessions. These dynamics create structural barriers to rapid restoration of secure, high-volume flows through the critical energy chokepoint, outweighing short-term diplomatic signals in trader assessments of the December 31 horizon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
43% probabilità
$8,253,019 Vol.
$8,253,019 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
43% probabilità
$8,253,019 Vol.
$8,253,019 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic well below pre-2026 levels, supporting the 57.5% trader consensus favoring “No” on full normalization by year-end.**
Since the February 2026 escalation, Iran has imposed restrictions, rerouted vessels through its territorial waters, and conducted targeted strikes on noncompliant ships, prompting a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions. Multiple ceasefire and memorandum efforts, including the June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU, produced only partial or temporary increases in transits before renewed attacks—such as the series of strikes on UAE tankers in early-to-mid August—reversed gains. Current daily crossings remain in the low dozens or fewer, versus historical averages exceeding 100 vessels.
Diplomatic channels with Oman on traffic-separation schemes and routes have advanced incrementally but remain conditioned on Iranian demands for sanctions relief and blockade removal. U.S. statements signal sustained economic pressure, while Iranian officials continue to tie reopening to concessions. These dynamics create structural barriers to rapid restoration of secure, high-volume flows through the critical energy chokepoint, outweighing short-term diplomatic signals in trader assessments of the December 31 horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$8,253,019Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic well below pre-2026 levels, supporting the 57.5% trader consensus favoring “No” on full normalization by year-end.**
Since the February 2026 escalation, Iran has imposed restrictions, rerouted vessels through its territorial waters, and conducted targeted strikes on noncompliant ships, prompting a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions. Multiple ceasefire and memorandum efforts, including the June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU, produced only partial or temporary increases in transits before renewed attacks—such as the series of strikes on UAE tankers in early-to-mid August—reversed gains. Current daily crossings remain in the low dozens or fewer, versus historical averages exceeding 100 vessels.
Diplomatic channels with Oman on traffic-separation schemes and routes have advanced incrementally but remain conditioned on Iranian demands for sanctions relief and blockade removal. U.S. statements signal sustained economic pressure, while Iranian officials continue to tie reopening to concessions. These dynamics create structural barriers to rapid restoration of secure, high-volume flows through the critical energy chokepoint, outweighing short-term diplomatic signals in trader assessments of the December 31 horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$8,253,019Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic well below pre-2026 levels, supporting the 57.5% trader consensus favoring “No” on full normalization by year-end.** Since the February 2026 escalation, Iran has imposed restrictions, rerouted vessels through its territorial waters, and conducted targeted strikes on noncompliant ships, prompting a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions. Multiple ceasefire and memorandum efforts, including the June 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU, produced only partial or temporary increases in transits before renewed attacks—such as the series of strikes on UAE tankers in early-to-mid August—reversed gains. Current daily crossings remain in the low dozens or fewer, versus historical averages exceeding 100 vessels. Diplomatic channels with Oman on traffic-separation schemes and routes have advanced incrementally but remain conditioned on Iranian demands for sanctions relief and blockade removal. U.S. statements signal sustained economic pressure, while Iranian officials continue to tie reopening to concessions. These dynamics create structural barriers to rapid restoration of secure, high-volume flows through the critical energy chokepoint, outweighing short-term diplomatic signals in trader assessments of the December 31 horizon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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